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There are ten $50$ paise coins placed on a table. Six of these show tails four show heads. A coin is chosen at random and flipped over (not tossed). This operation is performed seven times. One of the coins is then covered. Of the remaining nine coins, five show tails and four show heads. The covered coin shows 

  1. a head
  2. a tail
  3. more likely a head 
  4. more likely a tail 
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