Read the passage given below and answer the question that follows it.
Cigarettes constitute a mere $20$ per cent of tobacco consumption in India, and fewer than $15$ per cent of the $200$ million tobacco users consume cigarettes. Yet these $15$ per cent contribute nearly $90$ per cent of the tax revenues to the exchequer from the tobacco sector. The punitive cigarette taxation regime has kept the tax base narrow, and reducing taxes will expand this base.
Which of the following best bolsters the conclusion that reducing duties will expand the tax base?
- The cigarette manufacturers’ association has decided to indulge in aggressive promotion.
- There is a likelihood that tobacco consumers will shift to cigarette smoking if cigarette prices were to reduce.
- The cigarette manufacturers are lobbying for a reduction on duties.
- An increase in duties on non-cigarette tobacco may lead to a shift in favour of cigarette smoking.